There may be something scary in Halloween trick-or-treat bags, or rather, a lack of something: chocolate.
Cocoa prices have dropped from record highs in 2024, but retail chocolate prices are still high. That will likely mean less chocolate for trick-or-treaters, David Branch, sector manager of Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, told USA TODAY.
“For families, this Halloween they may notice they’re getting a little less for their money,” Branch said. “We expect shoppers to lean more heavily on value packs, promotions and alternative treats, while some households may buy fewer chocolate items than in previous years.”
What Happened to Cocoa Prices?
The cocoa market is starting to show early signs of stabilizing after record highs in 2024 that mostly stemmed from changes in weather patterns, particularly in Western Africa, Branch said.
But ongoing weather risks have kept cocoa from returning to its historical trading range, he said. And the chocolate on store shelves today was largely made with cocoa that manufacturers purchased six to 12 months ago, when prices were still near record highs, Branch said.
Halloween Spending Is Rising
The National Retail Federation estimates consumers will spend $13.5 billion this year on Halloween-related activities, up from $13.1 billion last year.
“Consumers continue to make Halloween a spending priority, but they are also approaching the season with affordability in mind,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Allison Zeller said in a press release.
Seventy-four percent of consumers surveyed by the NRF said they planned to celebrate Halloween this year, about the same as last year’s 73%. Participation has held steady since its increased popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic and is higher than the pre-pandemic level of 68% in 2019.
Consumers said they expected to spend an average of $115.14 per person, similar to $114.45 last year. But they are mindful of costs and planning ahead: Nearly one-third, or 31%, said they will comparison-shop, and 26% said they’d look for coupons or sales for Halloween purchases.
Health Goals May Shape Candy Choices
A survey by professional services company PwC found similar results. Eighty-six percent of consumers surveyed said they planned to celebrate Halloween this year, up from 78% last year. That number rises to 94% among Gen Z respondents.
Spending will average $263 per person, down from $289 in 2025, though the average budget rises to $368 among millennials.
“Old traditions are meeting new ways of celebrating,” Ali Furman, PwC consumer markets industry leader, told USA TODAY. Eighty-seven percent of respondents said they still planned to shop in stores, while 43% of Gen Z shoppers said social media shapes their Halloween plans. Nearly half of AI users said they were turning to the technology for costume ideas.
Health-conscious decisions are also making a mark on Halloween. Thirty-four percent of respondents said they were limiting or moderating candy or treat intake due to weight, blood sugar or metabolic health goals. Twenty-nine percent said they were reducing alcohol consumption at Halloween events, and 25% said they were choosing lower-sugar, allergen-friendly or “better for you” treats to hand out.
“Higher prices and health goals may mean smaller candy hauls,” Furman said.
Still, three-quarters of Halloween celebrants in the PwC study said they’d choose chocolate as their go-to treat, compared with 46% of revelers who said they’d hand out gummy candy.
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